Balancing the portfolio using Cynefin

The Cynefin framework can be used to assess whether the current and planned portfolio are balanced appropriately.

There are three patterns of portfolio investment depending on the maturity of the product.

1. A startup would have a portfolio dominated by investments in the Complex domain as the organisation strives to understand customer needs and whether there is a viable product.
2. A teenage organisation would see the majority of investment shift from the complex to the complicated domain as it seeks to scale and exploit its knowledge of customer’s needs.
3. A mature organisation would have a portfolio dominated by investments in the complicated domain with a healthy slice of investment in the complex domain providing knowledge for the next generation of investments in the complicated domain. These investments in the complex domain allow the organisation to better understand customer needs as they evolve. Although an organisation should have a portfolio where the majority of investment is in the complicated (and obvious) domain, a portfolio with no investments in the complex domain will probably lead to the organisation losing touch with its customers and driving off the cliff.

Investments in the chaotic and obvious domains will normally be significantly smaller than investments in the complex and complicated domains. In times of crisis, investments in the chaotic and obvious domain may dominate.

1. When the company loses touch with customer needs, investments in the chaotic domain may dominate. In such situations, normally heralded by a significant increase in churn, the organisation will be forced to focus a disproportionate amount of investment into addressing the issue. In this situation, the portfolio will naturally shift back to a healthy balance.
2. In times of crisis, when the industry is forced to change by regulators, investments in the obvious domain may dominate. The Chief Product Owner (CPO) must ensure that the portfolio returns to a healthy balance and “crisis investment” does not dominate beyond the crisis. Managers responsible for Investments in the obvious domain tend to have a “Just Do IT” / command and control attitude. These managers “know what is needed” and do have regard for those who want to understand customer needs. The CPO should ensure that valuable people who research and understand customers are not lost during the crisis. These kind of managers find it hard to give up the significant resources at their command after the crisis, and the transition back to a balanced portfolio will require strong leadership.

Investments are in the disorder domain when the product organisation may not agree on which domain some of the investments  are in.

1. “Four corners contextualisation” can be used to better understand the investment and how it should be treated.